Bruce Schneier on Security: Worst-Case Thinking

Security expert Bruce Schneier wrote an excellent article on the problem of worst case thinking:

My nightmare scenario is that people keep talking about their nightmare scenarios.

There's a certain blindness that comes from worst-case thinking. An extension of the precautionary principle, it involves imagining the worst possible outcome and then acting as if it were a certainty. It substitutes imagination for thinking, speculation for risk analysis, and fear for reason. It fosters powerlessness and vulnerability and magnifies social paralysis. And it makes us more vulnerable to the effects of terrorism.

Worst-case thinking means generally bad decision making for several reasons. First, it's only half of the cost-benefit equation. Every decision has costs and benefits, risks and rewards. By speculating about what can possibly go wrong, and then acting as if that is likely to happen, worst-case thinking focuses only on the extreme but improbable risks and does a poor job at assessing outcomes.

In a time when people are forced to give up more rights and liberties each day because else terrorists might do this or that, Schneier's analysis is more important than ever.